Barring any last minute u-turn, the Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed is expected to dump the People’s Democratic Party, PDP and join the All Progressives Congress or APC tomorrow, Tuesday.
Once again this demontrates Nigeria’s politicians continue to demonstrate their remarkable athletic ability of cross carpeting —sometimes before the carpet even lands.
Across the country, defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress have become so frequent that political analysts say the only thing moving faster than Nigeria’s inflation rate… is the migration rate of Nigerian politicians.
In Nigeria these days, politicians don’t cross the aisle—they cross the entire political map so often that party membership now looks less like ideology and more like a flexible monthly subscription.
Think that is a bit too harsh? Then look at this:
In 2023, just after the general elections, the ruling APC party controlled 21 states leaving opposition parties with 15 states shared amongst the PDP, APGA, and Labour parties.
Now the ruling party has added another 11 more states to its ranks, not through the ballot but through defections of incumbent governors.
The only one in opposition now are:
- Alex Otti of Abia, (Labour Party)
- Bala Mohammed of Bauchi (PDP)
- Charles Soludo of Anambra (APGA)
- Seyi Makinde of Oyo (PDP)
- And Ademola Adeleke of Osun State who himself moved from (PDP) to the Accord Party.
If the trend continues, analysts say Nigeria may soon introduce a new political category: “Endangered Opposition Species.”
Even government officials have acknowledged the wave. In 2025, the information minister Mohammed Idris correctly predicted that the ruling party could control as many as 30 states by 2026 if defections continued.
Maybe one should have placed a bet on that.
But the great migration of Nigerian politicians, isn’t limited to just governors.
In the National Assembly of Nigeria, defections have also chipped away at the opposition.
The Senate has 109 seats, while the House of Representatives has 360.
The ruling party already holds a strong plurality in both chambers, and several lawmakers elected under opposition platforms have crossed over—sometimes citing “internal party crises,” a phrase that in Nigerian politics often means “the grass looks greener on the government side.”
The effect?
A steadily shrinking opposition bench that critics say weakens legislative oversight.
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Of course, defections are hardly new in Nigerian politics. Some politicians have treated party membership less like ideology… and more like a short-term rental agreement.
Stay long enough to win an election… then check out when the political weather changes.
Nigeria’s constitution technically tries to discourage this.
Lawmakers are expected to keep the party under which they were elected—unless there is a clear division within the party.
In practice, however, that clause has become one of the most creatively interpreted sentences in Nigerian law.
Almost every defection now comes with the familiar explanation: “irreconcilable internal crisis.”
In other words: the political equivalent of “it’s not me… it’s you.”
And yet, for many politicians, the incentives are obvious.
The ruling party controls federal power, influence over national appointments, and significant political resources.
Joining the governing coalition can bring easier access to federal projects, political protection, and sometimes a smoother path to re-election.
Opposition parties, meanwhile, are often left struggling with internal disputes, leadership battles, and limited resources.
Political scientists call this “power-centered party alignment.”
In simpler terms: politicians tend to gather wherever the power currently lives.
But critics warn the trend carries risks.
A democracy functions best with strong competition—parties that challenge each other’s policies, question government decisions, and offer voters clear alternatives.
If one party becomes overwhelmingly dominant, some analysts worry that the system could drift toward what scholars describe as a “de facto one-party state.”
Not necessarily by law.
But by sheer political gravity.
Supporters of the ruling party dismiss those fears.
They argue that defections simply reflect political reality: politicians responding to voter expectations and aligning with a party they believe can deliver results.
After all, they say, no law prevents opposition parties from rebuilding and competing again.
Still, the optics are striking.
In just a few years, the political map of Africa’s most populous democracy has shifted dramatically toward a single party.
Which raises an obvious question.
Is this a sign of political stability…
or the slow disappearance of competitive politics?
Either way, one thing is certain.
In Nigeria, party loyalty may be temporary.
But the art of political migration… remains permanently in season.
(Editor: Roluke Ogundele)
