After months of aggressive reforms and tightening, Nigeria’s economy is said to have moved from stabilisation to consolidation.
But for millions of Nigerians facing a widening gap between positive data and daily hardship, that transition remains a hard sell.
Economists define stabilisation as the restoration of order—reining in inflation and calming volatile markets. For Nigeria, this meant a period of bitter medicine: high interest rates and painful currency adjustments. Now, government officials argue that the drift has been halted, and the 2026 “Budget of Consolidation” is designed to build on these foundations.
These are the government’s key targets
[Inflation Control: Targeted drop below 15%
FX Stability: Reduced volatility of the Naira
Investor Confidence: FDI rising to $720M in Q3 2025]
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria | Ministry of Finance
Recent data suggests the effort is gaining ground. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4%, citing the impact of these reforms. Projections even suggest Nigeria could reclaim its spot as Africa’s third-largest economy this year, overtaking Algeria.
With this, 2026 indicators are as follows
[GDP Growth: Projected 4.4% – 5.5%
Inflation: Expected average of 12.9%
FX Rate: Pegged near ₦1,400/$ in outlooks]
Source: IMF | NBS | CBN
Despite all these, on the streets, the narrative is different. While the Purchasing Managers’ Index shows industrial expansion, approximately 140 million Nigerians are still projected to live in poverty in 2026. For the average household, a moderating inflation rate doesn’t mean prices are falling—it just means they are rising more slowly from already record highs.
This presents an interesting set of contrasts for the economy.
[Slowing Inflation vs High Food Prices
Positive Growth vs. Weak Purchasing Power
Policy Success vs Power Grid Instability]
Source: PwC Outlook | NESG
Economic watchers at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) warn that 2026 is a make or break year. Consolidation must now move from spreadsheets to the real sector—specifically power and infrastructure.
Experts believe fixing the power sector alone could unlock up to 5% additional growth, yet the national grid suffered three collapses in the first month of 2026 alone.
For many Nigerians, stabilisation is a word for the history books; consolidation is what they expect in their wallets. Until these macro gains translate into jobs, lower energy costs, and food security, the debate over the “new economy” will remain a tale of two very different realities.
Editor: Ebuwa Omo-Osagie
