Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN has projected a stronger outlook for the country’s economy in 2026, with growth expected to improve amid ongoing reforms and relative macroeconomic stability.
The apex bank made this known in its latest macroeconomic outlook report, which outlines expectations for growth, inflation, fiscal conditions, and external sector performance in the year ahead.
The CBN says Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 4.49% in 2026, up from an estimated 3.89% in 2025. This projection is contained in the Bank’s latest Macroeconomic Outlook, themed “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability amid Global Uncertainty.”
According to the report, the improved outlook reflects gains from ongoing economic reforms, stronger investor confidence, and a more stable macroeconomic environment, particularly in the non-oil sector and crude oil production.
On prices, the CBN notes that inflation, though still elevated, is projected to moderate to an average of 12.94% in 2026. This is expected to be driven by easing food and energy prices, improved supply conditions, and the lagged impact of the Bank’s tight monetary policy stance.
The apex bank adds that sustained coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities has helped stabilise prices and anchor expectations, creating room for gradual policy adjustments to support growth.
On the external front, the outlook projects continued foreign exchange stability, supported by higher oil receipts, rising diaspora remittances, stronger non-oil exports, and improved domestic refining capacity.
External reserves are expected to rise to about $51 billion in 2026, while the current account surplus could also increase on the back of stronger exports and capital inflows.
Fiscal conditions are equally expected to improve, driven by deeper implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act, PIA, broad-based tax reforms under the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, and improved public financial management. However, the report cautions that public debt is projected to rise slightly, underscoring the need for prudent borrowing and strict adherence to fiscal sustainability rules.
Despite the cautiously optimistic outlook, the Central Bank warns that risks remain, including geopolitical tensions, volatile oil prices, climate-related shocks, and possible disruptions to crude oil production.
The Bank says it remains committed to safeguarding price stability, deepening foreign exchange reforms, strengthening the financial system, and supporting sustainable economic growth through data-driven policy decisions.
(Editor: Terverr Tyav)
